The Sea Empowerment & Research Center (SEREC) has warned that the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5 percent tariff on Nigerian exports could weaken Nigeria’s non-oil export drive, reduce foreign exchange earnings and expose the country’s fragile economy to additional pressure if urgent steps are not taken.
In a policy paper titled “The U.S. 12.5% Tariff on Nigerian Exports: Implications for Nigeria’s External Trade and Fragile Economy,” SEREC said the new tariff, which replaces an earlier temporary 10 percent regime, is likely to reduce the competitiveness of Nigerian products in the American market.
The centre noted that although Nigeria was not specifically singled out, its inclusion among countries affected by the higher tariff raises concerns about export performance, industrial growth and future trade relations with the United States.
SEREC said the U.S. remains one of Nigeria’s major export destinations, with trade largely driven by crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, cocoa products, sesame seeds, solid minerals and an expanding range of non-oil manufactured goods.
According to the organisation, crude oil exports may be less affected because of existing exemptions, but non-oil exports are expected to suffer the greatest impact.
It identified cocoa and processed cocoa products, sesame seeds, cashew, leather products, manufactured consumer goods, selected mineral exports and processed food products as the sectors most vulnerable to the new tariff.
SEREC warned that higher import duties would raise the landing cost of Nigerian products in the United States, making them less attractive to buyers who may turn to cheaper alternatives from competing countries.
The research centre said the measure could lead to lower export earnings, increased pressure on the naira due to reduced foreign exchange inflows, weaker industrial capacity utilisation and possible job losses across agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, freight forwarding and port operations.
It also cautioned that government revenue from exports and port-related activities could decline if shipments to the U.S. fall over time.
From a maritime perspective, SEREC said a prolonged drop in exports could result in reduced export cargo volumes, fewer container shipments, lower shipping activity on U.S.-bound routes and weaker earnings for freight forwarders and terminal operators.
To reduce the impact, the organisation urged the Federal Government to engage the U.S. Trade Representative to clarify the reasons for Nigeria’s inclusion, improve labour compliance and supply-chain traceability, speed up export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), promote value-added manufacturing, cut logistics costs through port and customs reforms and provide targeted support for exporters.
