The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has forecast that Nigeria’s inflation rate will remain elevated in the second half of 2026, averaging 15.5 per cent for both H2 2026 and the full year.
In its 2026 outlook titled “Turning Potential into Progress,” the NESG identified insecurity in major farming communities, climate-related disruptions such as flooding and high transportation costs as key factors that could keep inflationary pressures high.
The group also warned that increased spending linked to elections, higher seasonal demand during the festive period and relatively high energy costs could create temporary cost-push inflation in the second half of the year.
However, NESG said these pressures could be moderated by continued exchange rate stability, the delayed impact of tight monetary policy and favourable base effects.
On economic growth, the group projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by about 4.2 per cent in 2026, supported by stronger performances in the oil, manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.
It expects economic growth to reach 4.5 per cent in the second half of 2026, bringing full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to approximately 4.2 per cent.
NESG said the oil sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory as domestic crude oil production improves, supported by better security conditions and the gradual implementation of upstream sector reforms.
The group also projected that increased domestic refining activity would boost industrial production, reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthen the country’s external position.
Manufacturing activity, according to NESG, is also expected to maintain its growth momentum as lower inflation, exchange rate stability and improved foreign exchange liquidity ease production challenges and boost business confidence.
