The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) says Nigeria’s economy is showing clear signs of recovery and stronger growth after the implementation of what it described as “painful” economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the agency said the country had moved away from what it called a period of severe macroeconomic stress and was now operating on a more stable and increasingly resilient economic foundation.
According to the NRS, the Tinubu administration inherited four major structural problems: an unsustainable fuel subsidy system, a non-transparent foreign exchange market that discouraged investment, a struggling oil sector and a tax base that was significantly below its potential.
The report acknowledged that the reforms initially caused hardship for many Nigerians, but said several economic indicators were now improving. These include easing inflation, a better balance of payments position, higher oil output, stronger tax revenue and changes in the structure of domestic production.
The agency stated that the national minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026. It also said government policies and incentives helped reduce the number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, citing UNICEF estimates.
The report credited the naira-for-crude arrangement involving Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products after many years of relying heavily on imports.
Oil production was reported to have increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The NRS said the improved outlook was also reflected in the capital market, with the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. It linked the growth to stronger macroeconomic confidence, bank recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.
Tax revenue more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026. The report attributed the increase to digital tax administration, four new tax reform laws, restructuring of the revenue service and an executive order designed to block revenue leakages.
Economic growth was said to have improved from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves increased from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026.
The balance of payments also moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026. Nigeria’s trade balance improved from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion during the same period.
Capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, with inflows reaching $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
On the compressed natural gas (CNG) programme, the report said more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted by 2026, with over $2 billion in investment attracted and more than 10,000 jobs created.
In agriculture, the NRS said federal allocation to the sector increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget. It said the government also released strategic grain reserves, created a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, distributed fertiliser and expanded mechanisation efforts.
The report claimed food prices had dropped by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, but noted that the full impact of the policies would take several planting seasons to be reflected in higher agricultural output.
On public debt, the agency said Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025. However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and further to 32.3 per cent in 2026.
The NRS described this as the first sustained reduction in the ratio in more than 10 years, adding that debt servicing as a share of revenue had fallen from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.
