Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43 per cent in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025, as services and agriculture continued to support economic activity.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, real Gross Domestic Product increased from N51.20 trillion in Q2 2025 to N53.47 trillion in Q2 2026.
The services sector remained the biggest contributor to economic output, growing by 4.60 per cent year-on-year, compared with 3.94 per cent a year earlier.
Agriculture also recorded significant improvement, expanding by 4.39 per cent from 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.15 per cent in Q1 2026. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, agricultural output jumped by 17.80 per cent, raising its contribution to real GDP to 26.15 per cent.
However, the industrial sector continued to struggle, with its growth slowing to 3.96 per cent from 7.46 per cent in Q2 2025.
The oil industry provided additional support, recording 7.31 per cent year-on-year growth as average daily crude oil production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from 1.68 million barrels per day in the corresponding period of 2025.
The non-oil sector expanded by 4.31 per cent, with agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade, financial services, manufacturing and construction among the major contributors.
Private sector, economists react
Members of the Organised Private Sector and economists welcomed the latest figures but called for sustained economic reforms and greater attention to challenges affecting businesses.
President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the result was consistent with the chamber’s earlier projections and urged the government to maintain policy stability.
He also welcomed the stronger agricultural performance, stressing the importance of food production to reducing pressure on households.
National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, attributed part of the growth to increased domestic crude oil production and improved food output.
Kuti-George, however, said the industrial sector remained under pressure from inadequate electricity supply, forcing businesses to rely heavily on generators and increasing production costs.
He also raised concerns over the high cost of credit available to manufacturers, calling for measures to reduce interest rates and improve access to affordable financing.
Economist and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, linked the improving economic performance to increased liquidity in the macroeconomy since 2023.
Teriba said improved foreign exchange liquidity, increased availability of loanable funds and lower borrowing costs had contributed to greater economic stability.
He projected that GDP growth could exceed five per cent by the second quarter of 2027 if the current reform direction is maintained.
Similarly, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the latest GDP figures suggested that improvements in the macroeconomic environment were beginning to translate into stronger investment and economic activity.
Yusuf particularly highlighted the performance of agriculture, saying its expansion could support poverty reduction because of the large number of Nigerians employed in the sector.
A Lagos-based emerging markets analyst, Ike Ibeabuchi, also said the figures confirmed the dominant role of the services sector and increased activity in agriculture.
He urged the government to direct more interventions towards farmers and food production rather than relying mainly on cash distributions.
Sector breakdown
Trade was the largest individual contributor to real GDP in Q2 2026, accounting for 17.93 per cent. Crop production followed with 17.66 per cent, while real estate contributed 12.71 per cent.
Telecommunications and information services accounted for 9.72 per cent, while livestock contributed 6.04 per cent.
Crude petroleum and natural gas represented 4.16 per cent of real GDP, followed by construction at 3.68 per cent, financial institutions at 2.94 per cent, food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing at 2.82 per cent, and public administration at 2.66 per cent.
Average daily crude oil production increased from 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 to 1.72 million barrels per day in Q2. This was also higher than the 1.68 million barrels per day recorded in Q2 2025.
Although the oil sector’s 7.31 per cent annual growth was below the 20.46 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, it represented an improvement from the 2.57 per cent growth recorded in Q1 2026.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector expanded by 10.91 per cent and accounted for 4.16 per cent of real GDP, compared with 4.05 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.92 per cent in Q1 2026.
Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew by 4.31 per cent in real terms, compared with 3.64 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.94 per cent in Q1 2026.
The NBS identified crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, financial institutions, cement manufacturing and construction as major drivers of non-oil growth.
The non-oil sector accounted for 95.84 per cent of Nigeria’s real GDP in Q2 2026, compared with 95.95 per cent in Q2 2025 and 96.08 per cent in Q1 2026.
Source: PUNCH
