With campaigns now concluded, 15 candidates are set for the Osun State governorship election on Saturday, August 15, 2026, as political tension and security concerns continue to dominate the atmosphere ahead of the poll.
President Bola Tinubu has assured residents of adequate security before, during and after the election, urging voters to come out peacefully and vote for candidates of their choice.
INEC said 1.9 million voters out of the 2,339,233 registered voters who collected Permanent Voter Cards across 30 local government areas, 323 wards and 3,763 polling units are expected to participate.
Although 15 parties are in the race, attention has largely focused on Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, seeking re-election, Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, and Najeem Salaam of the ADC.
Security and violence
Fresh violence was reported in Esa-Oke, Ijesaland, where two APC members were shot. One of the victims, Oladele Ayegbo, a nephew of APC campaign council Director-General Wole Oke, was confirmed dead, while another victim is receiving treatment.
Police said the attack occurred on Wednesday night, and additional security personnel have been deployed.
To secure the election, the Nigeria Police Force has deployed 15,000 officers, 31 Commissioners of Police, helicopters and drones for aerial surveillance. Security agencies have also carried out a statewide show of force, while restrictions on movement are expected from midnight on election day.
Adeleke’s strengths
Governor Adeleke is relying on incumbency, infrastructure projects and support from organised labour. The NLC, TUC and JNC have openly backed his re-election bid.
He is also benefiting from the absence of a PDP candidate, as much of the party’s structure is reportedly working for Accord.
Adeleke is considered strong in Osun West, especially in Ede Federal Constituency, which has 319,489 registered voters. Support from some traditional rulers, including the Ataoja of Osogbo, is also seen as an advantage.
The defection of several loyalists of Senator Iyiola Omisore to Accord has further strengthened his position in parts of the Ife axis.
Adeleke’s challenges
Opponents have targeted early policy decisions of his administration, including the dismissal of teachers, health workers and media staff, as well as allegations of nepotism in recent recruitment exercises.
Critics also argue that the administration has underperformed in agriculture, health, commerce and education.
Another setback is the defection of a PDP bloc loyal to former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, which has publicly backed other candidates.
Oyebamiji’s strengths
The APC candidate is banking on federal support, party structure and endorsements from key political figures.
His campaign has received backing from President Tinubu and APC governors, while several influential politicians from Osun East, including Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Wole Oke, Sanya Omirin and Taofeek Ajilesoro, have aligned with the APC.
Oyebamiji is also expected to perform strongly in Osun East and in parts of Osun Central, where APC leaders such as Ajibola Basiru and Olalekan Badmus are active.
His campaign has focused on allegations of nepotism against the incumbent and on presenting himself as a candidate for all parts of the state.
Oyebamiji’s challenges
His biggest burden is his association with the Oyetola and Aregbesola administrations, particularly the controversial modulated salary policy and unresolved salary issues that affected many civil servants.
Accord has repeatedly used this issue to question his credibility among workers.
Salaam’s prospects
ADC candidate Najeem Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun House of Assembly, is campaigning on a 10-point agenda centred on workers’ welfare and electricity for industrialisation.
His main advantage is the grassroots network of former governor Rauf Aregbesola, whose supporters remain influential in parts of Osun West, Osogbo and Ilesa East.
Analysts believe Salaam could split votes in Osun West, potentially affecting both Adeleke and Oyebamiji.
Salaam’s challenges
His closeness to Aregbesola may also hurt him among civil servants who still associate the former governor with salary and pension disputes.
Observers further argue that the ADC lacks the statewide structure and resources needed for a strong governorship challenge.
Traditional rulers divided
The election has exposed divisions among traditional rulers.
- Timi of Ede has openly backed Adeleke.
- Ataoja of Osogbo has also supported the governor.
- Oluwo of Iwo is backing the APC.
- Akire and other monarchs in Irewole Federal Constituency have endorsed Oyebamiji.
- Ooni of Ife has maintained a neutral stance.
Oyinlola and Omisore factors
Former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has endorsed Oyebamiji, saying Osun needs a new direction.
Senator Iyiola Omisore, despite earlier signs of discontent within the APC, is now expected to support the party after recent consultations with President Tinubu. His influence in the Ile-Ife axis remains significant.
Incitement controversy
Amnesty International Nigeria has condemned remarks attributed to Senator Francis Fadahunsi in a viral video and said it would push for accountability over inflammatory political rhetoric.
Fadahunsi has denied calling for violence, insisting that the video was edited.
Former Chief of Defence Staff General Lucky Irabor (retd.) also called for the arrest of politicians and other public figures who make statements capable of inciting violence.
INEC and final preparations
Sensitive election materials arrived in Osogbo on Thursday.
The Osun State Government has also filed a suit seeking an order compelling the police to investigate Fadahunsi over the alleged remarks and to take preventive measures to protect voters and party supporters.
As Osun goes to the polls, analysts say the outcome will likely be determined by incumbency, federal influence, traditional and political endorsements, control of grassroots structures, security management and voter turnout across the three senatorial districts.
