Nigeria earned an estimated N24.02 trillion from crude oil exports in the first six months of 2026, with higher international oil prices significantly increasing the value of shipments despite ongoing concerns about insufficient crude supply to domestic refineries.
An analysis of crude production and export data from January to June 2026 shows that the country exported about 182.2 million barrels of crude oil during the period. The exports were valued at approximately $17.60 billion, equivalent to N24.02 trillion using an exchange rate of N1,365 per dollar.
Figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicate that total crude production for the six-month period stood at about 263.65 million barrels, with an estimated market value of $25.41 billion, or N34.69 trillion.
The calculations were based on average daily production and export volumes for each month, multiplied by the number of days in those months and valued using the corresponding average monthly Bonny Light crude prices. For June, production was estimated at 1.56 million barrels per day, exports at 1.11 million barrels per day, and the average crude price at $88.24 per barrel.
Production and exports rise after February dip
Nigeria produced 45.26 million barrels in January, before output dropped to 36.68 million barrels in February. Production later recovered to 42.78 million barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April, 47.43 million barrels in May, and an estimated 46.80 million barrels in June.
Exports followed a similar trend. The country shipped 31.31 million barrels in January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March, 31.20 million barrels in April, 33.48 million barrels in May, and 33.30 million barrels in June.
The value of crude produced was estimated at $3.08 billion in January, $2.65 billion in February, $4.54 billion in March, $5.67 billion in April, $5.34 billion in May, and $4.13 billion in June, bringing the cumulative production value to about $25.41 billion.
Export earnings were estimated at $2.13 billion in January, $1.74 billion in February, $3.06 billion in March, $3.95 billion in April, $3.77 billion in May, and $2.94 billion in June, giving a total of about $17.60 billion.
Crude exports remain Nigeria’s major FX source
The crude was exported by both international oil companies and indigenous producers, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), highlighting Nigeria’s continued dependence on crude oil exports as its largest source of foreign exchange.
Average daily production improved after falling sharply in February. Output moved from 1.46 million barrels per day in January to 1.56 million barrels per day in June, after declining to 1.31 million barrels per day in February.
Average daily exports also increased from 1.01 million barrels per day in January to 1.11 million barrels per day in June, although exports slipped to 860,000 barrels per day in February.
Overall, Nigeria exported about 69 per cent of the crude it produced during the first half of the year, leaving roughly 81.45 million barrels for domestic refining, storage, operational use and inventory adjustments.
Higher prices, not volumes, drove earnings growth
The rise in export earnings was attributed mainly to stronger international oil prices rather than a major increase in export volumes.
Crude prices climbed between March and May 2026 following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although prices moderated in June, they remained above levels recorded at the start of the year, helping to sustain the overall value of Nigeria’s crude exports.
Analysts noted that the figures represent the gross market value of crude produced and exported and do not indicate the actual revenue received by the government, which is affected by production-sharing agreements, royalties, taxes, operating costs, domestic supply obligations and other commercial arrangements.
Concerns over refinery crude supply persist
The export performance comes amid continued concerns about the availability of crude for local refineries.
Industry stakeholders have repeatedly argued that producers often prefer exports because of better returns, despite the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) contained in the Petroleum Industry Act.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has in recent months accused the Federal Government and its agencies of undermining local refining by failing to ensure adequate crude supply, claiming that poor implementation of the DCSO has affected its operations.
The refinery also temporarily stopped selling petrol in naira, asking marketers to pay in dollars before later returning to naira transactions.
In documents filed before the Federal High Court in Lagos, the refinery said its operations depend on crude supply arrangements with the NNPC and argued that inadequate domestic allocations were harming its business. The Federal Government has denied the allegation.
Commenting earlier, the Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, said most modular refineries source crude directly from private oil producers rather than through government allocations.
He urged the Federal Government to fully enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation to ensur
