Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell further to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, representing a 48-basis-point decline from the 15.91 per cent recorded in June.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the country’s overall disinflation trend continued, supported by relative stability in the macroeconomic environment.
The decline came despite ongoing challenges in food production and distribution, as well as disruptions in global energy supply.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, recorded a sharper improvement, falling by 94 basis points from 15.92 per cent in June to 14.97 per cent in July.
However, food inflation moved in the opposite direction, climbing by 279 basis points from 17.52 per cent in June to 20.31 per cent in July.
The increase reflected higher prices of several food commodities, including rice, garri, tomatoes, plantain, beef, onions, corn and yam.
Analysts said the continued moderation in headline inflation reflects improving macroeconomic stability. They pointed to Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which have risen above $52 billion and are approaching a two-decade high, as well as the relative stability of the naira around N1,350 to the dollar.
According to the analysts, sustained disinflation could support greater price stability and allow the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain its current wait-and-see approach rather than introduce further monetary tightening.
However, they warned that weaknesses in food production and supply chains remain major risks to the inflation outlook.
Analysts projected that headline inflation could continue its downward trend in August if global crude oil prices and the foreign exchange market remain stable. They said this could help keep petrol pump prices and logistics costs broadly around July levels, limiting additional pressure on transportation and distribution expenses.
Concerns were also raised over rising fertiliser costs and potential disruptions caused by flooding, which could reduce agricultural output and put further pressure on food prices.
SCM Capital said Federal Government tariff adjustments could help reduce the risk of additional food price increases, while the CBN may keep interest rates unchanged to manage excess liquidity and maintain long-term inflation expectations.
Arthur Steven Asset Management also said the moderation in core and headline inflation indicated that the disinflation process remained on track, although rising food prices represented a significant upside risk.
The firm noted that the sharp decline in core inflation alongside rising monthly food inflation points to the increasingly supply-driven nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenges.
It warned that inefficiencies in food production and distribution, seasonal pressures and transportation costs could continue to push up consumer prices in the short term.
According to the analysts, the latest figures could support a gradual easing of monetary policy, particularly because of the significant improvement in core inflation. However, they said the apex bank may remain cautious until there is stronger evidence that the decline in inflation can be sustained.
The analysts said the July figures confirmed that Nigeria’s disinflation process is advancing, with headline inflation falling by 0.48 percentage points and core inflation recording a substantial decline.
They, however, cautioned that persistent food price increases could slow the pace of disinflation, particularly if the pressure continues into the third quarter of 2026.
The NBS data also revealed significant differences in inflation levels across states.
Adamawa recorded the highest headline inflation rate at 33.03 per cent, followed by Yobe at 25.21 per cent and Anambra at 23.99 per cent.
The lowest headline inflation rates were recorded in Nasarawa at 7.86 per cent, while Kebbi and Borno both recorded 9.12 per cent.
For food inflation, Adamawa had the highest rate at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.
Borno recorded the lowest food inflation rate at -0.31 per cent, followed by Nasarawa at 6.88 per cent and Kebbi at 12.50 per cent.
The figures highlight the uneven impact of inflation across the country, with food and energy costs affecting states differently depending on local production, supply conditions and distribution challenges.
