The African Development Bank Group has projected a slowdown in Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.7 per cent in 2027, citing expected declines in global oil prices and weaker external revenue inflows, despite a slight improvement forecast for 2026. According to the bank’s African Economic Outlook 2026 report, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, up marginally from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025.
The AfDB attributed the projected growth in 2026 to rising oil prices and increased crude production, alongside expansion in the services sector and higher public investment in electricity, transport, and logistics infrastructure. The bank noted that these factors are expected to support economic activity in Africa’s largest economy in the short term. However, the report warned that Nigeria and other African economies remain vulnerable to global economic shocks, including supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter global financial conditions. The bank added that rising fuel and fertiliser costs could weaken agricultural output, worsen food insecurity, and push inflation higher, potentially forcing central banks across the continent to adopt tighter monetary policies that may constrain private sector lending and economic growth.
