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How Trump could influence the US midterm elections

Election officials across the United States are preparing for possible interference by President Donald Trump’s administration ahead of next week’s midterm elections, amid concerns that federal authorities could disrupt voting, challenge ballot counts or attempt to prevent unfavourable results from being certified.

Trump, whose Republican Party faces a difficult contest to retain control of Congress, has repeatedly questioned the credibility of American elections and called for voting to be nationalised in at least 15 locations.

Although the White House maintains that its actions are aimed at protecting election security, several of the concerns raised by state officials remain potential scenarios rather than confirmed plans.

The US Constitution does not give the president direct authority over the administration of elections, while federal courts have rejected several of the administration’s major legal challenges.

Some of the possible areas of concern include:

Before election day

Voter eligibility: The US Department of Justice has filed lawsuits against 30 states and the District of Columbia, seeking access to voter registration records to identify individuals suspected of being non-citizens.

However, the department has lost more than two dozen of the cases.

It has also requested that ballots from approximately 20,000 individuals in California and more than 400 in Washington State be withheld over allegations that they are non-citizens.

A federal judge rejected the request concerning California on Wednesday, warning that it could disrupt an election that was already underway. Washington State has also declined to comply.

Research has consistently indicated that voting by non-citizens in US elections is extremely uncommon.

Pressure on election officials: The Justice Department has cautioned election administrators across all 50 states that they could face prosecution if they knowingly permit non-citizens to vote.

Trump also announced on Monday a $1m reward for information that leads to a voter fraud conviction, although he did not provide further details.

At polling stations

Deployment of federal monitors: The Justice Department plans to deploy approximately 1,000 election monitors across all 50 states, representing its largest monitoring exercise of this kind.

Although federal election monitoring has existed for decades, Democrats and voting rights organisations have expressed concerns that the presence of monitors could intimidate voters.

The department has maintained that the monitors will be unarmed, will not interfere with voting and will not be recruited from the Federal Bureau of Investigation or Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Immigration agents and military deployment: Voting rights advocates have also raised concerns that immigration enforcement activities near polling stations could discourage participation, particularly among immigrant communities.

The administration has denied plans to conduct operations specifically targeting polling locations. However, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has said immigration officers could serve warrants at such locations.

Trump has also declined to rule out declaring a national emergency or invoking the Insurrection Act, a law that permits the president to deploy troops domestically under certain circumstances.

However, a Civil War-era law prohibits the deployment of troops and armed federal agents at polling stations, while legal experts argue that declaring a national emergency would not give the president control over election administration.

During vote counting

Seizure of election materials: Federal authorities could seek court warrants or subpoenas to obtain ballots, voting machines and election records, potentially interrupting the counting process.

In January, the FBI seized ballots and other records relating to the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia, an area central to Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that he won the presidential election that year.

Election administrators have warned that similar actions during an ongoing vote count could undermine procedures designed to protect ballots and maintain the integrity of election materials.

Challenges to election results: Trump could also raise allegations of fraud involving mail-in ballots, voting machines or votes counted after election night, potentially leading to demands for recounts or attempts to suspend the counting process.

However, the US Supreme Court ruled in June that states are permitted to count mail-in ballots postmarked by election day but delivered afterward.

Courts also retain the authority to intervene where election procedures are unlawfully disrupted.

After election day

Attempts to delay certification: The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit against Alaska, seeking to delay certification of its Senate election if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan narrowly loses to Democrat Mary Peltola.

The department cited concerns about another candidate named Dan Sullivan, whom it alleges could confuse voters. The second candidate has denied the allegation.

Trump said he personally directed the filing of the lawsuit.

Legal experts, however, maintain that federal law does not authorise the Justice Department to prevent election certification, which courts can compel officials to complete.

Challenges to Democratic victories: Another possible area of concern is pressure on state officials to challenge election results, similar to actions taken by Trump following his defeat in the 2020 presidential election.

Experts have warned that unresolved disputes could also delay the formal seating of newly elected lawmakers when the new Congress begins in January.

Nevertheless, US courts have repeatedly upheld the authority of individual states to administer their elections.

Democratic lawmakers and voting rights organisations have also assembled legal teams to challenge any attempts at interference.

Source: The Punch

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